Using Merlinn to Read Supply Planning Sensitivity Early

​

In healthcare, commercial and supply chain decisions are often made before demand has fully settled.

​

Production, procurement, and inventory planning take place months in advance. The real risk therefore rarely comes from execution errors, but from early assumptions about demand that lose validity over time.

​

Merlinn is used by commercial and supply chain teams to make these assumptions more visible, earlier, and in a structurally grounded way.

​

Beyond forecasts: observing demand behaviour

​

Forecasting systems are essential, but they remain assumptions.

​

Merlinn complements these assumptions by grounding discussions in observed NHS primary care prescribing behavior. The goal is not prediction but understanding how demand behaves within the healthcare system.

​

To support this, Merlinn provides ICB-level, molecule-based rolling 12-month average prescribing metrics, allowing teams to interpret demand patterns beyond short-term volatility.

​

Momentum: direction and stability of demand

​

Merlinn’s Momentum indicator reflects the direction and consistency of prescribing behavior.

​

Rather than reacting to isolated increases or decreases, Momentum helps teams distinguish between structural movement and temporary fluctuation, supporting more stable and evidence-based planning decisions.

​

Practice distribution: understanding demand concentration

​

Merlinn presents ICB-level practice distribution, showing how prescribing demand is distributed across GP practices using A–B–C–D–Other contribution groupings.

​

This categorization is based on the relative contribution of each practice to total prescribing within an ICB and is displayed through tables and ready-to-use visuals.

​

This view:

• Does not analyze individual prescribers

• Does not create a single index or KPI

• Does not assess performance or responsibility

​

Instead, it allows teams to see how demand is structurally distributed across practices, supporting interpretation of concentration and diversification without attributing intent or behavior at an individual level.

This design choice is intentional and governance safe.

​

A practical scenario

​

Consider a molecule showing a short-term increase in prescribing.

In traditional reporting, this may appear as a positive trend. However, in Merlinn:

 

• Momentum may show that the increase is inconsistent and fragile, while

• Practice distribution shows that most of the uplift is driven by a small number of high-contributing GP practices.

​

In this case, commercial and supply chain teams may interpret the signal more cautiously. This does not trigger an automatic action, but it creates a necessary pause before adjusting inventory or supply assumptions.

​

Interpreting deviations with care

​

Merlinn compares the monthly prescribing level with the established rolling 12-month average baseline. When the monthly value deviates materially from this stabilized reference, the system highlights the situation as a planning sensitivity signal.

​

This is not a real-time shortage alert, and it does not rely on supply, stock, or availability data. Its purpose is to draw attention to unusual demand behavior that may warrant closer planning consideration.

​

A governance-safe perspective

​

Merlinn does not recommend actions, optimize supply decisions, or assign intent.

​

All insights are descriptive and system-level, making them suitable for cross-functional use by commercial, supply chain, market access, and governance teams.

​

Final thought

​

In healthcare, supply risk rarely comes from lack of data. It comes from misreading early demand signals.

​

Merlinn helps teams pause at the right moment — and align planning decisions with how demand is actually behaving.

​​

Erhan Alkan

Managing Director

Triton BIT Solutions

​